Research: At Least, 1.7 Billion People At High COVID-19 Risk

News24xx.com - It is known that COVID-19 tends to get severe in patients with underlying conditions. New research now tries to put this in numbers, estimating up to 1.7 billion people or 22% of the world population to fall in that category.

This means that up to 1.7 billion people have at least one underlying health condition, thus putting them at an increased risk from COVID-19 disease. The study conducted by a team of researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) is now published in The Lancet Global Health.

The modeling study uses data from 188 countries and clears that not all of the 22% mentioned above will develop severe symptoms if infected. 

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In fact, the study suggests that only 4% of the world’s population (349 million of 7.8 billion people) would require hospitalization if infected with COVID-19. Thus, even the ones with underlying conditions might just see a moderate effect of the disease. 

The study provides an important insight into the highly vulnerable population that the governments across the world should focus on. In accordance with the numbers, the governments can better prepare themselves for such high-risk cases with advanced precautionary measures and appropriate medical facilities.

Such a risk factor for COVID-19 patients has even been highlighted by WHO for those having underlying cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, diabetes, or chronic respiratory disease.

Dr. Andrew Clark, Associate Professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), said: “As countries move out of lockdown, governments are looking for ways to protect the most vulnerable from a virus that is still circulating. We hope our estimates will provide useful starting points for designing measures to protect those at increased risk of severe disease. This might involve advising people with underlying conditions to adopt social distancing measures appropriate to their level of risk, or prioritizing them for vaccination in the future.”

The study provides global as well as regional estimates for the number of people with underlying health conditions. It should be noted that the research does not focus on other possible risk factors for COVID-19 like “ethnicity and socioeconomic deprivation”.

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As can be understood, countries with younger populations have a lesser proportion of the population with an underlying health condition. The vice-versa holds true too. Accordingly, the proportion of the population with one or more health conditions “ranges from 16% in Africa (283 million people out of 1.3 billion) to 31% in Europe (231 million out of 747 million)” as per the study.

Across the globe, less than 5% of people under 20 years have at least one underlying condition. This number rises to 23% in the working-age population of 15 to 64 years and to more than 66% in those aged 70 years and above.

In all, 349 million people worldwide are at high risk of severe Covid-19 as per the findings and will need hospitalization. The risk is proportionate to the age as above. While less than 1% of people under 20 years fall in this category, the same proportion rises to 20% of those aged 70 or older. The study also notes that in age groups under 65, around twice the number of men as women would require hospitalization.